In recent polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, concerning the hypothetical match-up between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, some concerning trends have emerged. The polls show Trump leading Biden in key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with a margin of between 3 to 10 percentage points among registered voters. Biden only holds a slight lead in Wisconsin, with a 2-point advantage.[0]
The polls also indicate that both candidates have unfavorable ratings among voters. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll, 60% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 50% have the same view of Biden. This suggests that both candidates face challenges in winning over voters.
One significant factor affecting Biden's support is his age. The polls show that a majority of voters believe Biden is too old for the rigors of the presidency, with 71% saying he is too old, compared to only 38% who feel the same about Trump.[1] This perception of Biden's age is widespread, cutting across various voter demographics, including his own political base.
Furthermore, Biden's support among key groups, such as voters under 30 and Hispanic voters, has been slipping. In the polls, voters under 30 only favor Biden by a single percentage point, and Hispanic voters have shown a reduced margin of support. This decline in support among younger, nonwhite, and less-engaged voters could seriously impede Biden's chances of re-election.[2]
Another concerning trend for Biden is the perception that his policies have hurt voters personally. A majority of registered voters in the battleground states believe that Biden's policies have had a negative impact on them, while Trump's policies are seen as helpful. This perception is strongest among Republicans, with 88% believing Biden's policies have hurt them personally.
The polls also highlight Biden's vulnerability on the issue of Israel. While Biden is seen as more trustworthy on abortion issues, Trump and the Republicans are seen as more trustworthy on immigration.[3] Additionally, a third of Democrats believe that Biden would back Israel too much, which undermines his overall standing on this issue.[4]
Despite these challenges, it is important to note that the polls are not definitive indicators of future election outcomes. As the Biden campaign has pointed out, predictions made more than a year before an election often change as circumstances evolve.[5] Additionally, Biden's re-election team can draw hope from the fact that former President Barack Obama faced similar polling struggles before his successful re-election in 2012.
However, the polls do serve as a reminder that Biden will face a challenging re-election campaign in an increasingly polarized nation. To secure victory in 2024, Biden will need to address the concerns raised by the polls, reconnect with key voter groups, and effectively communicate his policies and vision to the electorate. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the coming year will be pivotal for Biden as he seeks to solidify his support and secure a second term in office.[6]
0. “Blumenthal ‘concerned’ about Biden’s poor poll numbers” The Hill, 5 Nov. 2023, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4294458-blumenthal-concerned-about-bidens-poor-poll-numbers/
1. “Trump thumps Biden in swing states, new 2024 poll shows” Boston Herald, 6 Nov. 2023, https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/11/05/trump-thumps-biden-in-swing-states-new-2024-poll-shows/
2. “If Trump wins, more voters foresee better finances, staying out of war — CBS News poll” CBS News, 5 Nov. 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-2024-presidential-election-year-out
3. “Biden trails Trump in key states, poll suggests” RTE.ie, 5 Nov. 2023, https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2023/1105/1414778-biden-trump/
4. “The newest Israeli conflict very well may hurt Biden's reelection bid” Business Insider, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.com/the-newest-israeli-conflict-very-well-may-hurt-bidens-reelection-bid-2023-10
5. “Trump leading Biden in five swing states: Poll” Axios, 5 Nov. 2023, https://www.axios.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-biden-poll-nyt
6. “2024 Presidential Election Forecast: Donald Trump Outpaces Biden In Key States” Benzinga, 5 Nov. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/11/35610619/2024-presidential-election-forecast-donald-trump-outpaces-biden-in-key-states
